Article information

2022 , Volume 27, 5, p.43-54

Dorodnykh N.O., Nikolaychuk O.A., Pestova Y.V., Yurin A.Y.

Using a case-based approach to predict the risk of forest fires

Natural and man-made fires remain a hazard for both people and infrastructure of the Baikal natural territory. At the same time, it is necessary to note the importance of solving not only the problem of monitoring, but also the problem of predicting the hazard of natural fires depending on weather data, seasons and territorial infrastructure based on remote sensing data of the earth. The paper discusses the main stages of predicting the risk of forest fires based on a case-based approach, including: data post processing, the formation of a case model, the creation of a prototype of a case- based expert system, its debugging and integration into a web service for monitoring forest fires and evaluating the effectiveness of its operation. Information on fires in the Irkutsk Region for the period from 2017 to 2020 was used as the initial data. Approbation of the approach was carried out for the Kazachinsko-Lena and Bodaibinsky forestries. Based on the results of the evaluation, it was concluded that it is necessary to use a complex of different methods (data mining, neural networks) for more accurate forecasting

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Keywords: hazard of forest fires, forest quarters, forecasting, case-based reasoning, data analysis

doi: 10.25743/ICT.2022.27.5.005

Author(s):
Dorodnykh Nikita Olegovich
PhD.
Position: Senior Research Scientist
Office: Matrosov Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: 664033, Russia, Irkutsk, Lermontov St. 134
Phone Office: (3952) 45-30-19
E-mail: tualatin32@mail.ru
SPIN-code: 1922-2224

Nikolaychuk Olga Anatol'evna
Dr. , Associate Professor
Position: Leading research officer
Office: Matrosov Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: 664033, Russia, Irkutsk, Lermontov St. 134
Phone Office: (3952) 45-31-52
E-mail: nikoly@icc.ru
SPIN-code: 7354-3223

Pestova Yulia Viktorovna
Position: Student
Office: Matrosov Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of SB RAS
Address: 664033, Russia, Irkutsk, Lermontov St. 134
Phone Office: (3952) 45-30-19
E-mail: yupest@gmail.com
SPIN-code: 1802-4847

Yurin Alexander Yurievich
Dr. , Associate Professor
Position: Research Scientist
Office: Matrosov Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: 664033, Russia, Irkutsk, Lermontov St. 134
Phone Office: (3952) 45-30-19
E-mail: iskander@icc.ru
SPIN-code: 5830-7930

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Bibliography link:
Dorodnykh N.O., Nikolaychuk O.A., Pestova Y.V., Yurin A.Y. Using a case-based approach to predict the risk of forest fires // Computational technologies. 2022. V. 27. 5. P. 43-54
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