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Article information
2026 , Volume 31, ¹ 4, p.45-60
Bychkov I.V., Moskvichev V.V., Postnikova U.S., Taseiko O.V., Chernyakova N.A.
Risks of developing and protection assessment of the Baikal Natural Territory
Sustainable socio-economic development and the safety of territorial entities are examined within the conceptual framework of socio – natural – technogenic (SNT) systems based on the risk analysis criteria and methods. The methodological approaches developed within this framework have been applied to the specially protected SNT system of the Baikal natural territory (BNT). Social and economic safety of the territory depends on the effectiveness of regional governance informed by assessments of various types of risk. The study presents the results of an analysis of major hazards, baseline and comlex risks, and provides an overall assessment of the BNT territorial protection within a risk-oriented framework for three constituent entities of the Russian Federation: Irkutsk Oblast, the Republic of Buryatia, and Zabaikalsky Krai. At the municipal level within the BNT, spatial mapping of risks was carried out for hazardous hydrological and seismic events and forest fires (ecosphere); accidents, occupational diseases, and injuries (sociosphere); and technogenic emergencies and accidents at potentially hazardous industrial facilities (technosphere). The provided results enable a transition from a reactive model of hazard and emergency response to a preventive model of territorial socio-economic development management.
Keywords: social - natural - technogenic system, Baikal natural territory, natural - technogenic safety, baseline risk, anthropogenic impact, territorial protection
Author(s):
Bychkov Igor Vyacheslavovich
Dr. , Academician RAS, Professor
Position: Director
Office: Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: 664033, Russia, Irkutsk, Lermontova st., 134
Phone Office: (3952) 45-30-61
E-mail: idstu@icc.ru
SPIN-code: 5816-7451Moskvichev Vladimir Viktorovich
Dr. , Professor
Position: Director
Office: Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies,Siberian Federal University
Address: 660049, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Mira pr., 53
Phone Office: (391) 227-29-12
E-mail: krasn@ict.nsc.ru
SPIN-code: 9332-6468Postnikova Ulyana Sergeevna
PhD.
Position: Senior Research Scientist
Office: Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology,Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies
Address: 660049, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, av. Mira, 53
E-mail: ulyana-ivanova@inbox.ru
SPIN-code: 5790-6393Taseiko Olga Viktorovna
PhD. , Associate Professor
Position: Senior Research Scientist
Office: Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology
Address: 660037, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Office L-409, 410, 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av.
Phone Office: (923)-280-52-10
E-mail: taseiko@gmail.com
SPIN-code: 4032-4299Chernyakova Natalya Alexandrovna
PhD.
Position: Senior Research Scientist
Office: Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies
Address: 660049, Russia, Krasnoyarsk, av. Mira, 53
E-mail: fortuna@ict.nsc.ru
SPIN-code: 7941-4047
Bibliography link:
Bychkov I.V., Moskvichev V.V., Postnikova U.S., Taseiko O.V., Chernyakova N.A. Risks of developing and protection assessment of the Baikal Natural Territory // Computational technologies. 2026. V. 31. ¹ 4. P. 45-60
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